Maryland Among States With a High Undercount of Children Ages 0-4 in Last Census

Not accurately counting the number of people living in a certain jurisdiction during the decennial census can have far-reaching implications, from loss of federal funds to the skewing of data used to determine how many congressional representatives each state gets, as well as representation in state legislatures and local government. Recently the Census Bureau released new experimental estimates showing that young children ages 0 to 4, a historically undercounted population in decennial censuses, continued to be undercounted in every state in the 2020 census. Maryland was among 14 states and the District of Columbia with a larger undercount than the nation as a whole. The report showed that despite the unprecedented challenges of the 2020 census, due to the pandemic, the quality remained consistent with the same population groups historically undercounted and others overcounted.

In fact, the 2020 Census had a larger undercount of young children than every other census since 1970.  In addition to difficulties in counting young children experienced in previous decennial censuses and other Census Bureau surveys, the 2020 Census faced unique circumstances. The COVID-19 pandemic not only delayed collection but also disrupted living arrangements for many families, making the counting of young children even more challenging.

The number of children in the U.S. ages 0 to 4 counted in the 2020 Census was previously found to be about a million lower than the bench mark population estimate – an undercount of 5.46%. This was a larger undercount than any other age group. The net undercount rate for young children (the percent of children who were missed minus the percent who were double counted) was more than 5 percent up from around over 4 percent in 2010. The net undercount for young children has been increasing while that for adults has been improving since the 1980 Census.

Factors Contributing to the Undercount

While the pandemic played a role in the 2020 undercount, a 2019 report by the Census Bureau noted that young children with the greatest risk of census omission included:

• Children who were not a biological or adopted child of the householder (i.e., grandchildren, other relatives, and children who were not related to the householder)
• Children who were Hispanic or racial minorities
• Children living in complex households, defined as all households other than nuclear families, stem families (i.e., single-parent families), and single-person households
• Children living in renter-occupied housing and multiunit structures
• Very young children (those born in the few months prior to the census reference day)
• Children living in the largest and the smallest households
• Children counted by households self-responding to the census

Their research found evidence that the census missed some young children because the entire household they lived with was missed, including situations where the address was not included on the Census Bureau’s address file. The research also found evidence that sometimes the child was the only omission. U.S. Census Bureau (2019d) concluded that multiple contributing factors caused the undercount of young children in the 2010 Census including:

• Young children were missed because they lived in hard-to-count households
• Self-respondents made errors when they created household rosters.

Researchers contracted by groups, such as the Partnership for America’s Children, also conducted and shared their survey and focus groups results. Their findings provided some explanations for why young children were left off census questionnaires at such a high rate.

A high percentage of parents of young children reported that they did not intend to include their child on their census form; some did not think the census included young children since they were too young for school. For some respondents the term, “young children” did not always include babies or newborns.

Another factor that could contribute to undercount is poverty. The figure below shows the relationship between the county net coverage error estimates and the percentage of children in poverty. The green circles represent counties with an overcount, purple circles represent counties with an undercount, while grey circles represent counties with neither an overcount or an undercount.

The graph shows that the coverage of young children tends to decrease as the percentage of children in poverty increases.

For example, Cleveland County, Oklahoma, is in the top left corner of the graph because it had a relatively low percentage of young children in poverty and an overcount for young children in the 2020 Census.

Alternatively, Webb County, Texas, is in the bottom right corner and had a relatively high percentage of children in poverty and a large undercount of young children in the 2020 Census.

Maryland

According to the demographics analysis estimate for Maryland, nearly 20,000 children ages 0 to 4 were undercounted – 5.47 percent in the 2020 census . Maryland was among 14 states and the District of Columbia with a higher undercount percent than the whole country. More than two-thirds of them were in the South: The District of Columbia, Florida, Texas, Mississippi, Delaware, Louisiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina and Maryland — and the rest were in the West (Hawaii, California and Arizona) and Northeast (New York).

The counties in Maryland with the highest net error for young children compared to the whole state are Baltimore City (-10.90%), Somerset County (-8.86%), Montgomery County (-8.17%), Caroline County (-7.80%), Baltimore County (-6.33%) Dorchester County (-5.69%), St Mary’s County (-5.61%), and Queen Anne’s County (-5.57%)

Addressing census undercount is important because it can help determine levels of funding and political representation which can lead to potentially serious consequences for underrepresented groups . The undercount of children ages 0-4 is one that the Census Bureau has taken steps to address and yet, despite those efforts, the numbers from 2020 increased from the previous decennial census. It is important that the Bureau continue to work with stakeholders to ensure that by 2030 the numbers will start trending in the right direction.